This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 19 June 2020

Date: 22 June, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - May Retail Sales Surge, but Other Data Disappoint

  • Retail sales kicked off the week with a bang, rising 17.7% month-over-month in May. The increase was larger than every single one of the 74 forecast submissions.
  • The factory data were not as encouraging. Industrial production growth was just 1.4% in May, below the 3.0% consensus. On a year-over-year basis, the decline in industrial output was more than double the decline in retail sales.
  • The initial jobless claims data were the last major release of the week, and they too were disappointing. Even more disappointing were the continuing claims data, which showed almost no change in those receiving unemployment benefits from May 30 to June 6.


Global - Global Central Banks Back in Focus This Week

  • It was a busy week for central banks across the globe, with some opting to ease monetary policy further.
  • Within the G10, the Bank of England announced a £100B increase in its asset purchase target, but some elements of the accompanying statement were less dovish in tone. Meanwhile, the Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at zero.
  • Among the emerging economies, Brazil’s central bank delivered a 75 bps rate cut, and left the door open to additional cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia cut its Key rate a full percentage point, but Taiwan’s central bank kept rates on hold.


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