This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 October 2019

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U.S - Cracks in the Foundation?

  • Personal consumption is still on track for a solid Q3, but retail sales declined in September for the first time in seven months.
  • Manufacturing data were certainly influenced by the GM strike, but output has now fallen in six months this year, and survey evidence has yet to point to a meaningful pickup.
  • Single-family housing starts rose for the fourth consecutive month. Housing should positively contribute to GDP growth in Q3 for the first time in almost two years.
  • The lack of a pushback on market expectations from the Fed speakers gives us increasing confidence that the FOMC will cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps at its October 29-30 meeting.


Global -  A Breakthrough on Brexit, or Another False Start?

  • UK PM Boris Johnson and EU leaders announced they had struck a Brexit deal, an encouraging development ahead of the October 31 deadline by which the UK must either leave the EU or once again request an extension.
  • The path forward is precarious, however, as the UK Parliament is set to vote on the deal in an emergency session on Saturday. The prospects for the deal's passage remains far from assured.
  • Chinese Q3 GDP growth slowed further to 6.0% year-over-year, although September retail and industrial activity suggest the quarter ended on a firmer note. However, given a measured policy response, the overall growth slowdown should continue.


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