This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 April 2020

Date: 18 April, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - The Terrible Data (and the Stimulus) Start to Arrive

  • Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
  • 22 million people—or nearly 15% of the U.S. workforce—have filed for unemployment insurance in the past four weeks.
  • Retail sales, industrial production and home builder confidence all posted historic declines, with the New York and Philly Fed indices pointing to even more pain in April.
  • Household relief checks began to arrive, and the $349 billion of PPP loans were exhausted. We think a reload is likely.


Global - BoC Follows the Fed; Chinese Growth Nosedives

  • The Bank of Canada met this week and adopted a series of market measures that mirrored the Federal Reserve’s efforts to dive into unexplored monetary policy territory to support the economy and financial markets.
  • Data released last night showed real GDP in China declined 6.8% year-over-year in the first quarter, easily the biggest contraction since the country began reporting official figures in 1992.
  • The Chinese data provided additional evidence that, unlike a typical recession, manufacturing is outperforming the consumer.


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