This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 12 June 2020

Date: 13 June, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - The Risk of a Second Wave

  • Lock downs began to be lifted across most of the country by the end of May and the total amount of daily new coronavirus cases has been trending lower. But the flattening case count has not been consistent across the country.
  • Re-opening the economy without a vaccine always entailed the risk of a second wave, which is the largest risk to a steady economic recovery.
  • While we are monitoring this serious risk, we continue to expect the gradual re-opening of the economy to result in a measured rebound in activity.


Global - COVID-19 Curve Flattening, but Not Everywhere

  • This week, activity and sentiment data flow were relatively thin, with COVID-19 still dominating headlines and influencing the path of financial assets. Cases at the global level continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, while Latin American countries have been unable to flatten the curve.
  • In that context, concerns over a second wave of infections weighed on financial markets and risk assets, in particular equities and foreign currencies. Emerging currencies sold off sharply toward the end of the week, while international equities relinquished some of the gains of the past month or so.

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