This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 September 2020

Date: 15 September, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Labor Focus

  • In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
  • Aside from claims, inflation data were also a highlight this week. Prices continued to pick up in August, but we expect it will be quite some time before inflation consistently exceeds 2%, preventing the Fed from lifting interest rates anytime soon.
  • In our updated forecast this week, we released our initial estimates for 2022. At a high level, we expect the U.S. economy to grow above trend at 2.7% in 2022. For further details on our latest forecast, please see attached our Monthly Economic Outlook.


Global - ECB and BoC Relatively Quiet This Week

  • It was a relatively quiet meeting for policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) this week. The policy statement was almost a verbatim copy of July’s and President Lagarde mainly toed the line in her comments.
  • We remain constructive on the Euro zone recovery, but we will be watching the recent COVID-19 outbreak and the government responses very closely in the weeks ahead.
  • The Bank of Canada (BoC) also met this week, and like the ECB it mostly left monetary policy unchanged. The central bank noted that the “bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July.”


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