this-week-s-state-of-the-economy---what-is-ahead---08-november-2019

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 November 2019

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U.S.  - A Trade War Armistice? Don�t Make it a Holiday Yet

 

  • Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.
  • Due to the lack of concrete details, we are sticking to our assumption that the 15% tariffs on $156 billion of consumer goods imports will go into effect on December 15, but recognize there is some upside potential to growth and rates if a deal is reached.
  • Regardless, the economy has shown signs of stabilizing. The ISM non-manufacturing survey beat expectations this week by climbing to 54.7 from a three-year low of 52.6 last month.

Global Review       Central Banks Still Center Stage This Week

 

  • Central banks were back in focus this week, starting with Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official Cash Rate steady at 0.75% and reiterated that it was prepared to ease policy further if needed.
  • Elsewhere, the Bank of England opted to keep its Bank Rate at 0.75%, but two BoE members unexpectedly voted to cut interest rates.
  • Canada's labor market added fewer jobs than expected in October; however, the unemployment rate remained at a  near-record low. Even with the slight drop in October, the Canadian labor market is still performing relatively well.

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