This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 January 2020

Date: 04 January, 2020 | By : 

U.S - Geopolitical Developments Ring in the New Year

  • It was a light week for economic data in a shortened holiday week. But, news of President Trump ordering an airstrike in Iraq and killing a top Iranian military general resulted in a risk off response from markets as oil prices surged and Treasury yields fell early Friday morning.
  • Markets were also pressured from the latest ISM manufacturing report, which signaled further deterioration in the sector with the index falling to its lowest level since 2009.
  • The Conference Board reported a decrease in consumer confidence for the final month of the year, but we continue to see strong consumer fundamentals.


Global - China Showing Signs of Stabilization

  • China’s economic activity and PMI data have improved and beat consensus forecasts in November and December. While we continue to believe China’s economy will decelerate in the coming years, a Phase I trade deal and reduction to the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks should provide some support to China’s economy.
  • Chile’s economy continues to be disrupted by political protests, with the most recent data indicating the economy contracted for the second consecutive month. Given the updated data, it is likely Chile’s economy contracted in Q4-2019 and could fall into technical recession in 2020.


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