This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 May 2020

Date: 04 May, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - A Tough Week for the U.S. Economy

  • U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, only a hint of what is to come in the second quarter.
  • Consumer spending has dried up as people have been confined to their homes—most evident in the record plunge in services consumption in March. April will be even worse.&
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How Long Can U.S. Businesses Remain Shut Down?

Date: 29 April, 2020 | By : 

The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months. If businesses can forgo profits temporarily and do not need to purchase most inputs, then we estimate that the overall business sector could hold on for roughly four months. The sudden stop in economic activity that the CO

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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020

Date: 27 April, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Throw Out the Textbook

  • Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut.
  • In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
  • Congress has passed its fourth major re
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 April 2020

Date: 18 April, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - The Terrible Data (and the Stimulus) Start to Arrive

  • Economic data from the early stages of the Great Shutdown have finally arrived, and they are as bad as feared. ‘Worst on record’ is about to become an all too common refrain in our commentary.
  • 22 million people—or nearly 15% of the U.S. workforce—have file
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 April 2020

Date: 11 April, 2020 | By : 

U.S - Policy Moves Are More Important than the Data

  • The Federal Reserve greatly expanded the collateral that it is willing to buy, further easing pressures in financial markets.
  • While hiccups in implementing the Payroll Protection Program have been frustrating, the plan offers significant relief to small businesses that will lessen the se
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2020

Date: 10 April, 2020 | By : 

The Fed Goes Nuclear: Part II 

The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak. The Fed estimates that the programs will provide an additional  $2.3 trillion

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Capital Markets Update

Date: 08 April, 2020 | By : 

Greetings. Again, I hope this finds you all healthy and safe as we continue on our path through the COVID-19 pandemic. As a follow up to what I put out last week, I wanted to touch again on what I am seeing and hearing in the marketplace.


Information is paramount these days and with the flood of media coverage in just about every respect, it

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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020

Date: 04 April, 2020 | By : 

U.S - An Unprecedented Time

  • Data this week began to show just how large the coronavirus-related impact on the economy will be. Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.
  • Employers reported payrolls declined
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Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Date: 01 April, 2020 | By : 

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021. If realized, the FY 2020 federal budget deficit would be the biggest deficit as a share of the economy since World War II.

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming we

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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020

Date: 28 March, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Virus Shutdowns Begin to Show Up in the Data

  • The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
  • The impact of virus-related shutdowns became readily apparent in this week’s initial
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