This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 April 2020

Date: 04 April, 2020 | By : 

U.S - An Unprecedented Time

  • Data this week began to show just how large the coronavirus-related impact on the economy will be. Efforts to contain the virus are leading to millions of job losses and it’s likely only a matter of time before a majority of economic data reveal unprecedented declines.
  • Employers reported payrolls declined
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Where Will That $2 Trillion Come From Anyway?

Date: 01 April, 2020 | By : 

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming weeks and months. At present, we look for the federal budget deficit to be $2.4 trillion in FY 2020 and $1.7 trillion in FY 2021. If realized, the FY 2020 federal budget deficit would be the biggest deficit as a share of the economy since World War II.

Net Treasury issuance is set to surge in the coming we

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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 March 2020

Date: 28 March, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Virus Shutdowns Begin to Show Up in the Data

  • The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
  • The impact of virus-related shutdowns became readily apparent in this week’s initial
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 March 2020

Date: 21 March, 2020 | By : 

U.S - Shock and Awful

  • Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Financial markets seized up as it became clear just how much, and for how long, economic activity could be interrupted.
  • The situation has rapidly progressed bey
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 March 2020

Date: 14 March, 2020 | By : 

U.S - A Case in Exogenous Shocks

  • Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.
  • We now look for the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) 100 bps at next week’s meeting, which would be the largest single-meeting move on record and bring th
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020

Date: 07 March, 2020 | By : 

U.S - Data Look Great, If Only It Were Still February

  • An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.
  • The ISM manufacturing index narrowly remained in expansion territory, despite some early signs of virus-relat
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 February 2020

Date: 29 February, 2020 | By : 

U.S - A Tough Week

  • The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.
  • The bond market now expects almost four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, but one might rightly wonder how lower short-term rates would alleviate supply chain disru
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 February 2020

Date: 22 February, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Coronavirus Won’t Move the Fed

  • Minutes from the January 28-29 FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates, and for the most part housing and manufacturing survey data this week supported that view.
  • The Leading Economic Index jumped 0.8% to an all-time high&mdash
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 February 2020

Date: 15 February, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - Overarching Economic Themes Remain in Place

  • Retail sales increased for a fourth straight month in January, underscoring the resiliency of the U.S. consumer. Fundamentals are solid and support our expectations for healthy consumer spending gains in coming months.
  • The industrial sector remains challenged, however, as total production
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This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 February 2020

Date: 08 February, 2020 | By : 

U.S. - A Solid Week To Be Sure, But Keep an Eye on the Details

  • U.S. employers added 225K new workers to their payrolls in January, which handily beat expectations. But the factory sector shed jobs for the third time in four months, and net layoffs were reported for finance and retail as well.
  • For the first time in six months, the ISM was
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