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U.S. Review - More Evidence of Economic Recovery

Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived. An influx of cash from the latest round of stimulus and warmer weather after harsh arctic temperatures across the country in February led to a blockbuster month for retailers i

U.S. Review - Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last

This week's economic data kicked of with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped more than eight points to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The blowout report is just the latest data suggesting the full reopening boom is upon us. All 18 industries reported an increase in March,

U.S. Review - Activity Marches Higher 

• Increased vaccinations and an improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March. Firms' need for labor has increased to meet demand and employers added a whopping 916K jobs last month as the recovery gained momentum (see Chart). Prior job gains

U.S. - Inflation Comes Back in Focus

• Market attention was concentrated on the January consumer price data, as inflation has come back into focus. There is renewed concern among market participants that inflation is about to take off once the economy re-opens and demand accelerates. But, such concerns have not yet meaningfully presented themselves in consumer

U.S. - Better Numbers

• Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month's 227,000-job drop. The annual revisions to the prior data provide a more accurate assessment of job losses during last spring's lockdown, as well as the subsequent recovery. Job losses in March and April of last year were 202,000 jobs l

U.S. - Loss of Momentum Sets Up Weak Q1, but Recovery Pace Contingent on Vaccine Deployment

• Economic data came in largely as expected this week and suggest continued economic recovery.
• Real GDP growth advanced at a strong 4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. The loss of momentum toward the end of the quarter, however, sets up a weak

In our recently released second report in this series of economic risks, we focused on the potential of demand-side factors to lead to significantly higher U.S. inflation in the next few years. In short, we look for a modest increase in rates of consumer price inflation later this year. Not only do year-over-year comparisons become favorable for higher rates of inflation starting in the s

In the second installment of our series on economic risks in the foreseeable future, we analyze the potential for higher inflation in coming years stemming from excess demand. Multiple rounds of direct government aid have left many households flush with excess savings which, coupled with pent-up demand, could lead to robust consumer spending that causes prices to shoot higher as the year

U.S. - Housing Remains at the Forefront of the Recovery

• Housing starts jumped 5.8% during December. Single-family starts soared 12%, while multifamily starts dropped 13.6%. Total starts are running at a 1.67 million-unit pace, the strongest pace since 2006. Existing home sales rose 0.7% to a 6.76 million-unit pace in December. Mortgage applications for purch

The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate. Despite some near-term moderation, we are a bit more constructive on 2021 as a whole thanks to several new developments.

Stimulus to Boost Economic Growth in the U.S. 

The U.S. economy appears to be losin