TC Global Commercial | Blog

The U.S. economy appears to be losing some momentum as the calendar turns to 2021 and the public health situation continues to deteriorate. Despite some near-term moderation, we are a bit more constructive on 2021 as a whole thanks to several new developments.

Stimulus to Boost Economic Growth in the U.S. 

The U.S. economy appears to be losin

U.S. - Consumers Pull Back as COVID Continues to Surge

• Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
• The CPI advanced 0.4% in December (1.4% over the year). Inflation remains tepid, with core prices up 0.1% in the month.
• Initial jobless claims ju

U.S. - Slow Start to 2021

• The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.
• The service sector is also showing a great deal of strength, although activity has clearly slowed in high-contact parts of the economy due to rene

U.S. - Someday Soon We All Will Be Together, If the Fates Allow

• Vaccines are here, but they are not yet widely available in a way that can stem the spread of a disease that grows by 200K a day.
• A relief bill is coming, but it arrives as some of the damage it aims to prevent has already occurred: confidence is waning, personal spending fel

U.S. - The Shot Heard Round the World

• This week marked the first U.S. COVID vaccinations and the imminent rollout of a second vaccine. But, the resurgence of the virus and increased mobility restrictions further show why fiscal support would help ensure the economic recovery.
• The highest number of individuals since September filed an init

Aftershocks and divergence in the post-pandemic economy 

The longest U.S. economic expansion since the end of the Second World War came to an abrupt end earlier this year as the COVID pandemic essentially shut down the economy. Following an unprecedented plunge in Q2-2020—real GDP nosedived at an annualized rate of 31.4%—economic activity rebounded

U.S. - Winter Is Here

• Emergency authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears imminent, but the virus is running rampant across the United States today, pointing to a grim winter.
• Despite continued negotiations, additional COVID-relief remains elusive (see topic of the week on page 7) while initial claims for unemployment ins

U.S. - Data Continue to Reflect the Economy’s Resilience

• Manufacturing held up relatively well in November, despite a larger-than-expected dip in the ISM manufacturing survey. The nonfarm manufacturing survey rose slightly.
• Residential construction continues to ramp up, while the commercial construction pi

U.S. - One Can of Condensed Soup

• It may be a holiday-shortened week, but there have been as many developments and economic indicators packed into three days as we can recall seeing in any other week this year.
• We might have a third vaccine, but amid record case counts and double-digit positivity rates in many places, jobless claims posted

U.S. - House Party

• Soaring confidence among homebuilders, a pace of residential construction activity that topped expectations and existing homes selling at the fastest pace in 14 years were the highlights of a week in which housing data dominated the economic news.
• The consumer rebound has been another strong part of the economic recover