TC Global Commercial | Blog

June has now passed and the economic data seems a little mixed.  We added 850,00 jobs in June, but much of that was State governments school districts in some parts of the Country reopening just in time for summer break.  Subtract that and nonfarm employment increased 620,300, which was below consensus.  Both the labor force participation rate (61.6%) and the em

Well, here we are at the half-way point for 2021.  Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like it got here really quick this year.  Maybe it’s all the turbulence as the economy has whip-sawed back to life.  One week lumber was normal, then more expensive than a precious metal, then back again.  Supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause pain-in-th

Okay, so I’ve gotten about half a dozen calls since Wednesday asking if I saw the May CPI numbers that came out this week.  The answer is yes.  Pretty eye-popping…especially if you have the misfortune of being in the market for a new or used car.  Drive extra careful, because you don’t want to be that person right now!

There

U.S. Review Short on Supplies

 The CDC's relaxation of its mask mandate occurred mid-May, and as data for that month begins rolling in this week, it is evident there is no lack of demand. Supplies, on the other hand, are a worsening problem. Napoleon famously observed that an army marches on its stomach; in a similar vein, an economy can grow only as fast as i

U.S: Supply Chain Woes Tug at Growth and Send Prices Higher

This week's light calendar of economic reports showed supply chain disruptions tugging a little at economic growth. New home sales are being held back by record low inventories, as higher construction costs are slowing starts. While a slightly larger drop in consumer confidence and advance durable goods orders

U.S. Review Housing Begins to Bump Up Against Supply Constraints

Over the past year, the housing market has become white-hot. Low mortgage rates and increased household space needs have propelled home sales, builder confidence and residential construction to highs not seen since the housing boom in the early 2000s. Like many other parts of the economy, however, robust

U.S. Review U.S. Recovery Is Well on Its Way 

Data released this week showed the U.S. economy expanded at a rapid 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. The gain in output leaves the level of real GDP just a stone's throw below its pre-COVID Q4-2019 level (see chart). We project the level of output to eclipse its pre-COVID position in the second quarter an

U.S. Review: Raising the Bar Even Further 

• This week's lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week's blowout retail sales report. We have revised our forecast for Q1 growth up to a 5.5% pace from 4.8% previously, and growth for the year is now pegged at 6.5%, up from 6.4%.  Read More